Report: Only 6% of Oklahoma Elections Are Actually Decided in November
The rest are over before most voters ever get a say.
Every election year, Oklahomans are told that November is when our voices matter most. But when we examined the data — race by race, year by year — a very different reality emerged:
In Oklahoma, only about 6 percent of partisan elections are actually decided in the general election. The other 94 percent are effectively settled before November ever arrives.
What we analyzed
OK Independents reviewed partisan elections in Oklahoma across the last five statewide election cycles (2016-2024). Our analysis included:
Federal races (President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House)
Statewide executive offices
Oklahoma State Senate races
Oklahoma State House races
County Commissioner races on the ballot
We excluded nonpartisan judicial races, school boards, municipal races, and ballot questions. We also excluded partisan special elections, but plan to include those in future studies.
To ensure accuracy, we cross-referenced:
Official candidate filing records (to determine who actually filed)
Certified primary, runoff, and general election results
This allowed us to determine when — and by how many voters — each race was effectively decided.
How we defined “decided”
A race was considered effectively decided before November if:
Only one candidate filed, meaning no election was held at all
Only candidates from one party filed, meaning the outcome was decided in a party primary or runoff
More than one party appeared on the general election ballot, but the winner won by more than 10 points, making the result a foregone conclusion
Only races decided by less than 10 points in November were counted as “genuinely decided in the general election.” This distinction matters. Voters technically casting ballots is not the same thing as voters having a meaningful choice.
What we found
Across five election cycles, the results were remarkably consistent. On average, only about 6% of elections were decided in the general election - meaning that 94% of partisan elections are effectively decided in the primary or primary run-off. These elections are often decided by just a handful of party faithful voters who are not representative of the broader electorate.
Despite changes in turnout, national politics, and ballot composition, the bottom line barely moved:
Roughly 19 out of every 20 partisan elections in Oklahoma is meaningfully decided in primary or primary run-off elections.
Even high-turnout elections didn’t change the pattern
This trend held true even during Presidential elections, Gubernatorial elections, and years with record-breaking turnout. In short, high participation did not translate into high competition. That tells us something important: This is not a voter apathy problem, it’s a structural problem.
When most races are decided before November — often by a small subset of voters — increasing turnout alone cannot fix the system.
Why this matters — especially for independent voters
Oklahoma has nearly 500,000 registered independent voters, but Oklahoma also uses closed primaries, which means independents are routinely locked out of the only election that actually matters in their district.
When a race is unopposed, decided in a closed party primary, or settled in a low-turnout runoff, independent voters are effectively told:
“You can vote in November — but the decision’s already been made.”
That’s not meaningful participation. It’s procedural permission without real power.
This isn’t about parties — it’s about participation
This analysis isn’t an argument against Democrats or Republicans. It’s an argument for voters.
A system where most races are decided by a narrow slice of the electorate, long before the general election, with little or no competition, is a system that concentrates power and discourages engagement. Over time, that erodes trust — not just in candidates or parties, but in democracy itself.
The bottom line
In Oklahoma, November elections are often the final formality — not the real decision.
If we want broader participation, more competitive elections, and a system that reflects the will of all voters, we have to be honest about how elections actually work today — and who they leave out.
That’s why OK Independents exists - because democracy should belong to all of us, not just a small number of voters who happen to vote into one party’s primary.
About this analysis:
This study was conducted by OK Independents using official Oklahoma State Election Board data and publicly available candidate filing records. Full methodology and supporting data are available upon request.
